A parable to illustrate that the same set of data can be compatible with both alleged global warming and cooling simultaneously, ergo, proving that both sides in this nonsensical debate are correct.
On a certain planet called X, the average temperature had been a steady 16° X for as long as anyone could remember. During a spell of particularly clement weather, a climatologist from X took two temperature measurements and and recorded the extreme values 0°X and 36. Their arithmetic mean was 18°X – a full 2 degrees X above the long-term average.
Eager for the fame and funding that such a discovery might bring, the scientist quickly drafted a grant proposal outlining a theory of X-kind-induced global warming. The proposal carefully hinted at dire consequences for X-habitants unless immediate lifestyle changes—with potentially drastic economic repercussions—were implemented.
News of the “discovery” appeared in the local newspaper (aptly named The X-PRESS) and was beamed across the galaxy. Before long, a scientist from the distant planet Zeldon arrived to investigate. Unfamiliar with the X scale, the visitor converted the readings using the square-root relation between the two temperature scales. The values 0°X and 36°X became 0°Z and 6°Z yielding a new mean of 3°Z. Noting that the previous average of 16°X converted to 4°Z, the Zeldonian announced that the data showed no evidence of warming—in fact, they indicated global cooling.
A diplomatic incident followed. The Zeldonian suggested that the X-ians’ thermometric scales were poorly designed. In the ensuing exchange, the X-climatologist defended their mercury-based thermometer, noting that its column length varied linearly with temperature and was even used as dental amalgam. The Zeldonian retorted that any fluid producing the square of the temperature in degrees Z was hardly a model of intelligent design. Unmoved, the visitor wrote a competing grant proposal to study global cooling. Meanwhile, on a distant planet in another galaxy, yet another scientist—using a third temperature scale—found no statistically significant change in the average temperature of X and promptly lost tenure for failing to publish.
Like its religious counterpart, this fable shows how the same pair of measurements can be interpreted as either warming or cooling if a non-linear change of temperature scale is made.
© Philip Pennance 01-30-2005
For a more detailed discussion, please see the following pdf: